IMPACT OF BRI AND FOIP DEVELOPMENT ON NATIONAL SECURITY IN THREE TROUBLE SPOTS IN INDONESIA

Abstract

China's economic growth followed by its military progress has created imbalances in the Asia-Pacific
region, especially Southeast Asia. At present, China's military is ranked third in the world, and even the China
Sea is ranked second in the world. China is developing its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) strategy to increase its
geopolitical influence in the Southeast Asian region. The United States created America's Free and Open IndoPacific (FOIP) policy to counterbalance China's geopolitical influence. This study aims to determine the national
security risks that occur in 3 touble spots in Indonesia as a result of the development of BRI and FOIP in the
Southeast Asian region. This research uses the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Method approach. Based on
the results of Risk Factor research consisting of threats, vulnerabilities and impacts showed that impact with a
value of 0.396 was identified as the most important criterion followed by vulnerability with a value of 0.335 and
threats with a value of 0.269. Sensitivity analysis showed minimal variation in ranking order across different
scenarios, confirming the robustness of the proposed model. This analysis suggests that adjusting the weights
and scores used in evaluating national security trouble spots can improve the decision-making process, as it
shows the important role these factors play in risk ratings for each region.