CAUSAL ANALYSIS OF INDONESIA ARCHIPELAGO MARINE DEFENSE SYSTEM: A DELPHI-DEMATEL APPROACH

Abstract

The development of science and technological advances as well as the era of globalization encourage the emergence of new layers and dimensions of shifting perceptions of threats as well expanding scale and destructive power for increasingly complex state life. These changes affect the policy of the national defense strategy which has an impact on the role and approach of the Indonesian Navy towards the concept of the archipelago's maritime defense and security system (SPLN). A country's maritime defense strategy is no longer limited to its territorial waters or the surrounding sea, but also oriented both regionally and globally. The Indonesian Navy's strong posture plays an important role for the Indonesian Navy in determining the strategy to be implemented to address the problems. This research uses the DELPHI-DEMATEL framework which aims to identify and provide an overview of the relationship between variables from the Indonesian Navy's Posture and the development of the strategic environment in the implications of the Archipelago Sea Defense System (SPLN). The methodological design of this study identified several variables from TNI AL and the development of the strategic environment posture through a literature review resulting in 10 main variables, using the DELPHI method analysis obtained 8 variables that were feasible for further analysis. DEMATEL was used to process and interpret the collected data and cause-effect relationships were established between variables. DEMATEL's analysis shows that the variables Technology, Socio-Cultural, Strength, Capability, Operational Degree, and Potential Threats fall into the causal group. These factors are very important because they directly affect the Real Threat, Economy, Politic and Defense factors.
Keywords: DELPHI-DEMATEL, Archipelago Marine Defens System (SPLN), Indonesian Navy Posture.